17 January 2018: Nervousness

With the rise of the markets comes uncertainty among investors. These Dutch Guys are aware of investors in their surroundings who converted their stock portfolio into cash because of the high stock prices and the fear of a sudden drop. Last week, for a moment it looked like bonds were entering a bear market. Cryptocurrencies drew blood yesterday after many of them had already taken a blow to the chin in the weeks before.
It has been long overdue, but it looks like we are entering a new phase in this bull market. The bulls are still having the upper hand, but more and more bears are exercising their influence on the markets. A first big correction in the current bull market appears to be imminent.

white-chapel-logo-smallIt was a trading day with two faces yesterday. In the morning hours, all major US indices reached fresh all-time highs from which they retreated in the afternoon. They all closed with small to moderate losses. The Dow lost 0.04%, the S&P 500 closed 0.35% lower and the NASDAQ recorded a loss of 0.51%. It looks like the pace of the overall market’s latest gains is finally making some investors nervous. Volatility jumped: the VIX closed almost 15% higher. UVXY ETFs followed suit and gained more than 12%. XIV ETNs lost close to 5%.
Danny Daredevil regained much of his losses from the first two weeks of this year. His RSS rose to -3%. Adventurous Anny´s RSS remained unchanged at 23%, as she is still holding a cash position. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry had to take a big step back. Their RSS dropped to 106%.
None of our models gave a trading signal at the end of yesterday’s session.

Model Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil UVXY 1 January 2016

-2.61%

-4.51%

-4.51%

-1%

Adventurous Anny Cash 6 March 2017

22.91%

0.00%

0.00%

27%

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

106.60%

2.47%

2.47%

131%

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

106.60%

2.47%

2.47%

131%

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

The Chapel Family – Episode 16

Anny, Suzy and Larry are looking out of the window at the back of their home. It was a sound that attracted their attention.

Anny: “Was that the sound of a bird?”

Suzy: “I think I saw a swallow.”

Larry: “A swallow? Are you kidding me? It ain’t spring yet.”