2 January 2018: A look in the good old crystal ball

People ask us quite often: what will 2018 bring? Will the stock markets be as quiet as was the case in 2017? To serve all those curious readers, These Dutch Guys decided to climb the stairs and get their good old crystal ball from the attic. This is what we saw:

  • During the ski jumping event at the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, North Korea will launch a missile that will hit the Polish ski Jumper Adam Malysz in full flight. As a retaliatory measure, the US will destroy Kim Jong-un’s favorite ski resort in Masikryong.
  • A procedure will be started to impeach US President Donald Trump, after the so-called DNA papers, released through WikiLeaks, reveal that Donald Trump was not born in New York City, but in Kotzebue, Alaska. Trump was born 13 years prior to the moment that Alaska became the 49th state of the United States in 1959.
  • New Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell will be able to convince his fellow Fed members that the US economy needs more interest rate cuts rather than rate hikes. Through six bimonthly rate cuts, the Fed will lower the Federal funds rate to 0% during 2018.
  • During the summer of 2018, temperatures at the US east coast will reach 113 degrees Fahrenheit. Donald Trump will react swiftly at Twitter:  “In the East, it could be the WARMEST Summer on record. Perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old Global Cooling. Enjoy your free copy of Ice Age 6: Revenge of the Air Conditioners!

All in all, 2018 will be a quite remarkable year. And starting from the unfortunate events which take place at the 2018 Winter Olympics, it will be a turbulent year.

Uwhite-chapel-logo-smallS stock indices fell on Friday, putting a negative tinge to an otherwise positive year as selling accelerated in the final minutes of a thinly traded session. The Dow lost 0.48%, the S&P 500 closed 0.52% lower and the NASDAQ ended the day 0.67% lower. Volatility was on the rise: the VIX added more than 8%. It closed above 11 points for the first time in more than three weeks. UVXY ETFs gained close to 4%. XIV ETNs lost almost 2%.
As a result, Danny Daredevil was able to close the year with an RSS above 0%. It closed at 2%. His average annual return (AAR) closed at 1%. Adventurous Anny is holding cash. Her RSS remained at 23%. Her AAR for 2017 closed at 29%. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry had to take a step back. Nevertheless, their RSS closed above 100% at almost 102%. Their AAR for 2017 is 135%.
None of our models gave a trading signal at the end of Friday´s session.

Model Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil UVXY 1 January 2016

1.99%

-74.70%

-26.80%

1%

Adventurous Anny Cash 6 March 2017

22.91%

22.91%

13.28%

29%

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

101.62%

101.62%

37.83%

135%

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

101.62%

101.62%

37.83%

135%

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

RS_v05-smallIce skating at the Grote Markt in Breda.
Picture taken during the Winterland Breda 2017 event.
The event was held in Breda’s city center from 20 to 30 December.
According to the local newspaper BN DeStem, between one and two thousand ice skating enthusiasts found their way to the rink.