In our first post of the new year, we will do a full review of 2017. But in this last post of 2017, we will summarize the year in keywords, as discussed in the daily blog posts by These Dutch Guys: farewell to Obama, Dow @ 20,000, Trump rally continued, Brexit approved, roll-back of Dodd-Frank, alternative facts, mentions of ‘bubble territory’, rate hikes, American Health Care Act rejected, missile attacks on Syria, North Korean nuclear rocket threats, Macron elected, firing of James Comey, bomb explosion in Manchester, bitcoin goes mainstream, the ‘official’ end to the financial crisis, complacency in the stock markets, cyber attacks, Barcelona terror attack, weak dollar, “fire, fury, and frankly power”, end of quantitative easing, German elections, the (in)dependence of Catalunya, Jeff Bezos richest man alive, yield curve inversion, Jerome Powell new Fed boss, Japan is back, a year of records, tax bill approved.
The Dow logged its 71st record close in 2017, driven mostly by gains in bank shares and a slight pick up in energy and materials. The index added 0.26%. The S&P 500 (+0.18%) and the NASDAQ (+0.16%) also closed higher. Volatility eased: the VIX closed almost 3% lower. UVXY ETFs had to pay the price: they closed more than 3% lower. XIV ETNs recorded a substantial gain of 2%.
Danny Daredevil slipped back into the red. His RSS closed at -1.6%. Adventurous Anny is holding cash. Her RSS remained at 23%. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry continued their climb and their RSS closed at 105%.
None of our models gave a trading signal at the end of yesterday’s session.
RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return
René’s Reflections @ Friday: Reuring
A year of high hopes and aspirations has almost come to an end. Also a year of low returns. Or should I say: ‘no returns’. As for me personally, I relied for the most part on the performance of Danny Daredevil. That said, I know all too well that this is part of the game, and that this is the flip side of the coin. “He who can’t stand the heat, should stay out of the kitchen.” The year 2017 with its unprecedented market calm just hasn’t been fertile soil for volatility-driven investment strategies like Danny. So I take my losses and take a deep breath as I roll into the new year, hoping to end the year on a higher note next time.
I congratulate those who were ‘into’ Suzy or Larry this year (or Anny, depending on the entry date). I sincerely hope that 2018 will bring us back some good old-fashioned market volatility. We really don’t need a bear market in order for our models to thrive. A correction, or even a pullback, would do just fine. What we need is a bit of reuring!
These Dutch Guys wish you a happy, healthy, prosperous and peaceful New Year 2018!