19 December 2017: Record of records

2017 has been an incredible year in the stock markets. Take a look at a number of remarkable facts about a remarkable year:

  • This is the fifth straight year where the Dow has closed at a record at least once.
  • On a total-return basis, the S&P 500 has risen for 13 straight months through November, an unprecedented streak.
  • Global stocks haven’t had a down month since October 2016. No matter what happens in December: 2017 will be the year with the fewest monthly declines in the history of the world index.
  • The average observed one-month volatility in the S&P 500 was lower than any other year since 1970.
  • Of the 56 lowest closing levels in the history of VIX (since 1990), 47 of them occurred this year. The VIX, which is also known as the ‘fear index,’ notched two all-time closing lows.

white-chapel-logo-smallThe major US stock indices closed at records on growing expectations that tax cut legislation would be passed this week. The Dow (+0.57%) posted its 70th record close of the year, the highest-ever number of record closes in a calendar year. The S&P 500 (+0.54%) and the NASDAQ (+0.84%) posted similar gains.
Volatility remained at very low levels. After dropping to 9.24 points during yesterday’s session, the VIX recorded a tiny gain and closed at 9.53 points (+1%). UVXY ETFs had to take another step back: -2.8%. XIV ETNs gained almost 2%.
Danny Daredevil is almost back at the level where he started almost two years ago. The result of a very good year (2016) and a very bad one (2017). Adventurous Anny is holding cash. Her RSS remained at 23%. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry saw a continuation of the explosive rise of their RSS. It closed at 103% yesterday.
None of our models gave a trading signal at the end of yesterday’s session.

Model Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil UVXY 1 January 2016

0.69%

-75.02%

-27.73%

0%

Adventurous Anny Cash 6 March 2017

22.91%

22.91%

13.28%

30%

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

102.82%

102.82%

38.65%

145%

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017XIV

102.82%

102.82%

38.65%

145%

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

RS_v05-small

A backlit scene in good old black and white: Breda, Ginnekenstraat.