11 December 2017: What Shakespeare said

The man that once did sell the lion’s skin while the beast lived, was killed with hunting him. — Shakespeare, Henry V

According to some, the year 2017 can’t go wrong anymore for investors. Bring in the champagne:

Five reasons why 2017 has been such a blockbuster year for investors (Financial Post)
It Could Be a Perfect Year for the Stock Market (Bloomberg)
Do we have the perfect recipe for a year-end rally? (CNBC)
We’re still only in the early stages of stock-market euphoria (MarketWatch)
The bull market may continue in 2018, here’s why (Fox Business)

But there are still three trading weeks to go before this year’s end. And what was that other saying again, which also had the word skin in it, as well as the word bear?

white-chapel-logo-smallA strong US jobs report helped push the major indices higher on Friday. The Dow and the S&P 500 closed at record highs (+0.49% and +0.55% respectively). The NASDAQ also gained (+0.40%). The weekly results were less convincing though: the Dow rose 0.40%, the S&P 500 gained 0.35% and the NASDAQ even closed lower than the week before, losing 0.10%. Volatility eased again during the week. During the first half of the trading week, the VIX hovered around the level of 11 points. Maybe it was something investors ate (or drank?) during their Wednesday’s lunch, but since that moment, volatility eased and the VIX sank back to the single digits again. The VIX closed at 9.58 Friday, almost 6% lower for the day, and more than 16% lower for the week. UVXY ETFs lost almost 7% on Friday. XIV ETNs gained more than 3%.
Friday was another profitable day for all our models, as they were all holding XIV ETNs in portfolio. Danny Daredevil saw his RSS rise with 4 percentage points, to just over 19%. Adventurous Anny‘s RSS climbed to 22%. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry keep performing well, with their RSS now at 85% and their AAR at 125%.

Model Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil UVXY 1 January 2016

19.32%

-70.40%

-14.36%

10%

Adventurous Anny Cash 6 March 2017

22.34%

22.34%

12.76%

30%

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

85.59%

85.59%

26.87%

125%

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

85.59%

85.59%

26.87%

125%

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

Two of our models gave a trading signal at the end of Friday’s session. Danny Daredevil switched from XIV ETNs to UVXY ETFs and Adventurous Anny traded her XIV ETNs for cash at the opening of today’s session.

 

Every year, Tim and René visit the Belgian village of Doel in the Flemish province of East-Flanders (see our blog posts of 7 July last year and 5 October this year). Last Saturday, they visited the place for the 17th time. As they strolled through the deserted streets of the doomed village, they noticed a work of street art that stood out from all the rest. It was titled Everybody Can Be Proud and signed by David Selor (FR), who added a request: “Please send me a picture!”
Nous vous en prions, Monsieur Selor. Dommage que nous ne nous sommes pas rencontrés!

David Selor sur FaceBook et sur Flickr