14 November 2017: Demographics

9 March 2009. That was the day the last bear market ended. The day that the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ bottomed. The current bull market is more than eight and a half years old. The average bull market in the last hundred years lasted 9 years. A bull market may last as long as 15 years, which was the case during the fifties and sixties of the last century. Federated Investors portfolio manager Steve Chiavarone thinks that the current bull market might run for another ten years. His explanation: demographics. Millennials need to secure their future (income) in a different way than previous generations have done and they will be forced to buy equities (shares and the like) to do so. This might happen, if nothing else happens. Usually, something else happens: think oil, think dotcom, think subprime.

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US stocks closed slightly higher on Monday. The major indices made an attempt to rebound from their first weekly loss in two months that happened last week. But they were barely successful. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ both closed 0.10% higher, while the Dow gained 0.07%. Volatility made a small move: the VIX closed almost 2% higher. UVXY ETFs followed suit and closed almost 1% higher. XIV ETNs recorded a small loss: -0. 25%.
Danny Daredevil was again the winner of the day. His RSS is now above 33%. Adventurous Anny is still holding cash. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry had to take a small loss, but their average annual return remains above 100%.
None of our models gave a trading signal at the end of yesterday’s session.

Model Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil UVXY 1 January 2016

33.14%

-66.97%

-4.44%

17%

Adventurous Anny Cash 6 March 2017

15.37%

15.37%

6.34%

23%

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

62.81%

62.81%

11.30%

102%

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

62.81%

62.81%

11.30%

102%

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

Meanwhile in Japan

Seeing is believing. An unattended parking lot. A small box office without the usual cashier. Instead, a sign that reads: “Please pay in advance”. Next to it, a list on which every visitor wrote down the date of arrival, and number plate of the car. The amount due, ¥400 ($3.50), goes into a small cardboard box behind the counter. Those who pay with a ¥1,000 note, take their change from a smaller box in front of it, which contains sets of one ¥500 and one ¥100 coin. A trust-based system. Only possible in higher forms of civilization. Location: Sandan-kyō Japan.