19 September 2017: German elections

In this Trump era, it could almost be overlooked: this Sunday, Germany goes to the voting booth. An explanation for the tranquility that is surrounding these elections, might be the fact that nobody is expecting huge changes. Once again, Angela Merkel of the CDU will be the winner of the elections, the social democrats (SDP) will finish second, etc. Both parties will very likely lose some votes in comparison to the previous elections. Smaller parties will benefit from these losses. So, the results of the elections will not be very surprising. The consequence of the outcome of the elections might pose a problem, however. CDU and SDP are expected to be the only two parties that are able to form a majority coalition. If SDP loses too many votes, the party will probably prefer the opposition benches to becoming part of the next German government. Angela Merkel has shown time and again to have great puzzle-solving skills, however. Well before the end of the year, Merkel will be able to present her fourth cabinet.

white-chapel-logo-small

The Dow ended at another record close on Monday. It was its 40th record close of the year. Financials and materials shares were most wanted. The Dow rose 0.28%, whereas the S&P 500 gained 0.15% and the NASDAQ closed 0.10% higher. Volatility is standing at low levels. The VIX barely moved yesterday. However, UVXY ETFs had to take another firm step back: -8.67%. Conversely, XIV ETNs profited: +4.22%.
Danny Daredevil did not see an end to his misery yesterday. His RSS dropped even further. During the last couple of months, Danny has seen almost all of his gains for 2016 and 2017 being wiped away at a fast pace. His RSS closed at 33% yesterday. Adventurous Anny is still holding cash. Her RSS remains at 4%. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry are the winners during this period of low volatility. Their RSS closed above 40% yesterday.
None of our models gave a trading signal at the end of yesterday’s session.

Model  Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil UVXY 1 January 2016

32.80%

-67.06%

-69.49%

18%

Adventurous Anny Cash 6 March 2017

3.84%

3.84%

-25.11%

7%

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

40.06%

40.06%

11.90%

87%

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

40.06%

40.06%

11.90%

87%

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

De Pont is a museum for contemporary art in Tim’s hometown. Last weekend, the museum celebrated the fact that it was opened 25 years ago. The museum’s director Hendrik Driessen received a gift: a statue by the world-famous artist Anish Kapoor. De Pont had already 10 pieces of art in its collection before it could add a bended mirror of six meters tall to its possessions. Sky Mirror (for Hendrik) can be found in front of the museum’s entrance and it reflects the sky above the museum in a spectacular way. Tim was surprised that the mirror looked more like a painting than a mirror.