30 August 2017: Mirrored patterns

Yesterday’s volatility in the stocks markets mirrored its cause: its pattern looked like a missile that got launched, flew a while and then finally crashed into sea. The VIX was pre-market up more than 20%, opened 18% higher, stayed in the higher regions for about an hour and then started its steady descent. The so-called fear index closed 3% higher in comparison to its previous close. These Dutch Guys are not sure if in all cases the characteristics of an event that causes volatility carry some predictive value for the course of the trading day. Well, come to think of it: the last time Donald Trump raised his voice, it caused a lot of turmoil in the markets, but it finally fizzled out….

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Yesterday, investors were a bit scared of the North Korean missile that had been launched the day before, but most of the fear was gone at the end of the day. All major US indices ended in the green. The Dow rose 0.26%, the S&P 500 gained 0.08% and the NASDAQ closed 0.30% higher. The VIX opened substantially higher, but closed relatively close to where the previous trading day had ended: +3%. UVXY ETFs saw a gain of 20% at the beginning of the session vaporize and closed up 2%. XIV ETNs lost less than 1%.
Danny Daredevil had hoped for more, but recorded a gain nevertheless: his RSS rose to 84%. Adventurous Anny is holding cash. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry had to take a small step back: their RSS closed at 22%.
None of our models gave a trading signal at the end of yesterday’s session.

Model  Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil UVXY 1 January 2016

84.01%

-54.35%

-57.73%

44%

Adventurous Anny Cash 6 March 2017

3.84%

3.84%

-25.11%

8%

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

21.91%

21.91%

-2.60%

50%

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

21.91%

21.91%

-2.60%

50%

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

How to know when the BUT film festival is about to start, other than to check the programme on the festival’s website?
It’s simple: traditionally, the start of the festival coincides with the end of the summer weather.
After several weeks of gorgeous weather in the Netherlands, it is now raining cats and dogs, and the temperatures are dropping, hours before the opening of the festival.
Could it be that this is where the Dutch expression: “Het is weer butweer” (it is ‘but’ weather again) comes from?