17 August 2017: Patience being tested

It is almost seven months ago that we witnessed something many people deemed impossible: the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States. Already at the moment of his election in November last year, investors greeted the surprising outcome of Trump’s battle with Hillary Clinton with enthusiasm. And the Donald promised not only to make America great again: especially businesses could expect even greater things from President Trump. But their patience is being tested.
Yesterday, the President announced that he is dissolving two business councils after a substantial number of business leaders withdrew from these councils. More and more Americans start losing their faith in the man they saw as their savior. Slowly but surely, this change of mood is also influencing Wall Street. There is an urge for President Trump to deliver before Santa Claus is coming to town or this year might end on a sour note for the stock markets.

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US stocks ended a volatile session slightly higher yesterday. The Dow gained for the fourth time in a row: +0.12%. The S&P 500 added 0.14% and the NASDAQ rose 0.19%. Volatility went up and down and back up again, to go down again. The VIX closed below 12 points for the first time in five sessions (-2.5%). UVXY and XIV recorded small changes. UVXY ETFs went down 1.15% and XIV ETNs gained close to half a percent.
Our models made a small profit for the day: Danny Daredevil‘s RSS closed just above 163%. Adventurous Anny is getting closer and closer to 20%. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry are closing in on 30%. Their RSS was 27% at the end of yesterday’s session.
None of our models gave a trading signal at the end of yesterday’s session.

Model  Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil XIV 1 January 2016

163.25%

-34.69%

-39.52%

81%

Adventurous Anny XIV 6 March 2017

19.20%

19.20%

-14.03%

48%

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

27.41%

27.41%

1.80%

71%

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

27.41%

27.41%

1.80%

71%

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

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In René’s home town Breda, a new courthouse is nearing the end of its construction phase. It is a high-rise building that will dominate the skyline of the city. Now that the building has reached its final height of 66 meters, and a total of 14 stories, the inhabitants of Breda are ready to form their opinions on it. And they are mixed. Some people like it, but others are not amused: they were used to see the ‘Grote Kerk’ (Big Church, see our blog post of 11 August 2016) as the only high-rise building in their field of view. Now they have come to see ‘this ugly tower’ spoil their view. Like so many things in life, it’s all a matter of perspective…