15 August 2017: The tide rises, the tide falls

The tide rises, the tide falls, / The twilight darkens, the curlew calls; / Along the sea-sands damp and brown / The traveller hastens toward the town, / And the tide rises, the tide falls. (Henry Wadsworth Longfellow – The Tide Rises, the Tide Falls)

At the stock markets, everything comes in waves. Last week, a torrent of unrest flooded the trading floors. This week started off with water that is pulling back strongly from the shores. Or, as MarketWatch puts it: Asian markets bounce back as North Korean threat recedes. It is very likely that this low tide will last some time before the next wave of waves comes rolling in from the sea. Enjoy the dry beach in the meantime!

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Not completely surprisingly, stock prices swung back up again yesterday. All major US indices booked substantial gains. Add another few days and nobody will remember the small North Korea crash that happened a few days ago. The NASDAQ was the winner of the day and closed 1.34% higher. The S&P 500 came in second and added exactly 1%. The Dow gained 0.62%. As a result, volatility eased big time. The VIX dropped more than 20%. UVXY ETFs had to pay the price: they closed no less than 26% lower. XIV ETNs recorded a large gain: +13%.
All members of the Chapel Family were in a much better mood than last week. Danny Daredevil‘s RSS rose back to 160%. Adventurous Anny left single-digit territory as her RSS rose to 18%. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry are back to green for the quarter and their RSS closed at 26%.
None of our models gave a trading signal at the end of yesterday’s session. They are not close to a trading signal as they expect stock prices to rise further the upcoming days.

Model  Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil XIV 1 January 2016

160.28%

-35.43%

-40.21%

80%

Adventurous Anny XIV 6 March 2017

17.85%

17.85%

-15.00%

45%

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

25.97%

25.97%

0.65%

68%

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

25.97%

25.97%

0.65%

68%

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

As a kid of the eighties, Tim’s growing up coincided with the rise of electronic music. Since he was a bit too young to fully enjoy the birth of electronic pop music by such German acts as Kraftwerk, Klaus Schulze and Tangerine Dream, his first introduction to the genre was through the English electronic band Depeche Mode. In fact, the first cassette tape Tim borrowed from the local library was DM’s album Construction Time Again. Although this is not the band’s debut album, it was its first record that gained broader interest in the Netherlands. Almost 35 years later, Construction Time Again sounds a bit premature and unpolished. But DM’s music matured in the years thereafter and in 1987 Music For The Masses was released. This is the album that has secured itself most intensely to Tim’s subconscious. He regards Strangelove, that was also released as the first single from the album, as the peak of the band’s repertoire.
While walking through the Belgian city of Antwerp last week, Tim suddenly stood eye to eye with the band. He could not resist immortalizing this encounter, in the spirit of the band’s regular photographer, Anton Corbijn.