3 August 2017: Crude oil

Two articles in Het Financieele Dagblad, the Dutch equivalent of the Financial Times today: Fugro stocks collapse after weaker-than-expected results and Tesla’s losses aren’t so bad. Fugro is a major independent provider of geo-intelligence, mainly for the mineral oil industry. Tesla is an American automaker which produces cars without a traditional petrol engine.
Just before the sub-prime crisis of 2008, the price of a barrel of crude oil was close to $140. Stock prices and economic activity are back at the same level, but the price of oil has difficulty to structurally exceed the ceiling of $50. Prices of commodities don’t lie: the role of oil in the world economy is diminishing.

white-chapel-logo-small

An Apple a day… All major indices got a little help from good results of tech-giant Apple. The Dow finished above 22,000 points (+0.24%) and the S&P 500 gained 0.05%. The NASDAQ had a more difficult day and the rise of Apple shares could not fully compensate for the losses of other tech stocks: the index closed 0.29 points (-0.00%) lower. Despite the rise of most indices, volatility went up: the VIX was up almost 2% and UVXY ETFs gained 1 percent. Logically, XIV ETNs were down half a percent.
Danny Daredevil got a little compensation for the loss of the day before yesterday: his RSS rose to 189%. Adventurous Anny is still steady at 33%. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry recorded a small loss. Their RSS is still well over 40%.
None of our models gave a trading signal at the end of yesterday’s session.

Model Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil UVXY 1 January 2016

189.32%

-28.23%

-33.53%

95%

Adventurous Anny Cash 6 March 2017

32.57%

32.57%

-4.39%

99%

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

42.61%

42.61%

13.93%

137%

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

42.61%

42.61%

13.93%

137%

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

While the rest of the family was enjoying Phantasialand, Tim made a 35-kilometer walk in the vicinity of the amusement park. It is a wooded area with many lakes. The majority of these lakes are the result of the mining of lignite. Tim prepared his hike by planning a route with the help of the wonderful Open Street Map, an open source map of the world, “created by people like you”. As far as Tim is concerned, Open Streep Map is much better than Google Maps, because it contains a lot of trails that are not available in Google Maps. Tim created a route that went along as many lakes as possible by means of Distance calculator, generated a gpx-file that he imported in the brilliant iOS-app Galileo. And off he was: Berggeistweiher, Lucretia-See, Silbersee, Zwillingsee, Donatussee, Entenweiher, Untersee, Mittelsee, Obersee, Liblarer See, Franziskussee, Heider Bergsee, Schluchtsee, Pingsdorfer-See, Villenhofer Maar, Forsthausweiher, Stiefelweiher, Tongraben and the other side of Lucretia-See and Berggeistweiher.