28 July 2017: Isn’t it ironic?

During the last six years of his presidency, Barack Obama had a very hard time to get proposals through Congress. After the Democrats lost their majority in the House of Representatives in 2011, many of his initiatives did not even reach the stage of decision-making. The Republican majority in Congress would systematically frustrate Obama’s plans. His proposal to reform healthcare, the Affordable Care Act, did get supported by a political majority in Congress during the first two years of Obama’s presidency, and was signed into law by the President on March 23, 2010.
Fast-forward to more than seven years later: President Donald Trump is trying to keep his election promise of abolishing the Affordable Care Act. He is backed by a Republican majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Yesterday evening, even Trump’s proposal to only slightly alter the Affordable Care Act did not get a majority. Isn’t it ironic?

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For the first time in many weeks, stock investors and option traders were getting nervous yesterday. During the trading day, the VIX shot up almost 20%. The day had started quite innocently. But after lunchtime, stock indices went south and the volatility gauge peaked. However, during the last part of the trading session, traders came to their senses. The S&P 500 (-0.10%) and the NASDAQ (-0.63%) still recorded losses, but the Dow was able to stay positive for most of the day. It closed up: +0.39%. The VIX recorded nevertheless a substantial gain at the close of the session and left single-digit territory. It gained more than 5% and closed at 10.11 points. UVXY ETFs gained for the third day in a row. At the height of today’s panic, they were up more than 12%, of which only 1.44% remained when the closing bell sounded. XIV ETNs also had a wild ride, but managed to control damage with a loss of only 0.67%.
Danny Daredevil‘s RSS is crawling back to the barrier of 200% and closed at 192%. Adventurous Anny closed unchanged at 33%. She is still holding cash. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry had to take a step back. Their RSS closed at 42%.
None of our models gave a trading signal at the end of yesterday’s session.

Model Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil UVXY 1 January 2016

192.09%

-27.54%

-32.90%

98%

Adventurous Anny Cash 6 March 2017

32.57%

32.57%

-4.39%

104%

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

42.08%

42.08%

13.52%

144%

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

42.08%

42.08%

13.52%

144%

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

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René’s Reflections @ Friday: The Catalyst

In an unlit room
Filled to the brim
With people assimilated by darkness
The first one to accidentally hit the light switch
Will cause quite a stir.