18 July 2017: Domino effect?

Last night, two more Republican senators, Jerry Moran and Mike Lee, said that they will oppose the current Republican health-care bill. With this, a majority for the proposal was lost in the Senate. The Republican party chose to address the health-care overhaul before it will take on tax reform, because a substantial part of the tax reforms needs to be financed through the benefits that come from the health-care reform. Will this opposition cause a domino effect, not only in the political arena, but also in the stock markets? Much of the air that has been pumped into stock prices comes from the promises of pro-business proposals by President Donald Trump. Or will stock investors once again be untouched by political events?

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US stocks finished virtually unchanged Monday, as investors were waiting for quarterly results. The Dow closed 0.04% lower and the S&P 500 lost 0.01%. The NASDAQ was the only major index that closed up: +0.03%. Volatility showed an unusual pattern: the VIX closed higher (+3.26%). But UVXY ETFs, which usually go up when volatility rises, lost more than 5%. XIV ETNs showed the opposite pattern and closed more than 2.5% higher.
There seems to be no end to Danny Daredevil‘s misfortune: his RSS closed at 221%. Adventurous Anny is holding cash. Her RSS remained at 33%. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry were lucky today: despite of increased volatility, they saw their RSS rise to 36%.
None of our models gave a trading signal at the end of yesterday’s session.

Model Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil UVXY 1 January 2016

220.75%

-20.43%

-26.31%

113%

Adventurous Anny Cash 6 March 2017

32.57%

32.57%

-4.39%

116%

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

35.75%

35.75%

8.46%

130%

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

35.75%

35.75%

8.46%

130%

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

RS_v05-smallThis is the week of the Nijmeegse Vierdaagse, officially called the Internationale Vierdaagse Afstandsmarsen Nijmegen (International Four Day Marches Nijmegen). This four-day hiking event is immensely popular. It takes place every year in and around the city of Nijmegen and is the largest multi-day hiking event in the world. Though the hiking itself will take place from Tuesday (as in today) to Friday, the accompanying parties already started on Saturday. René spent the best part of that day in the city center of Nijmegen to get a good taste of the atmosphere.