26 May 2017: The cat is not at home

Als de kat van huis is, dansen de muizen op tafel. (“When the cat is not at home, the mice will dance at the table.”) You would wish that this proverb from Dutch were true in the case of Donald Trump’s current road trip. But it is relatively quiet in Washington. The FBI is making an attempt of creating a fuss by involving Donald Trump’s son-in-law (and main adviser) in its investigation into the Russian connections of the US President. But it is all too feeble. Investors are falling asleep and the VIX, the main indicator for volatility, has dropped once again well below ten points. We are glad that by next Monday, Donald Trump’s first trip abroad will have come to a conclusion.

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The S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at new record highs and also the Dow climbed, only just short of a new record. The S&P 500 gained 0.44%, the NASDAQ rose 0.69% and the Dow closed 0.34% higher. Volatility eased, but only slightly: -0.30%. Volatility is once again at very low levels. At these low levels, it turned out to be hard for XIV ETNs to record another gain. They closed down 1% for the day. UVXY ETFs gained almost 2%.
As a result, Danny Daredevil‘s RSS dropped slightly to 420%. Adventurous Anny ended the final session before closing the current trade at a return of almost 40%. Her RSS almost doubled in only six trading days. Adventurous Anny will now be waiting for more favorable circumstances to jump on the XIV train again. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry also took a small step back. Their RSS closed at 17% yesterday.

Model Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil UVXY 1 January 2016

420.18%

29.04%

10.97%

225%

Adventurous Anny Cash 6 March 2017

39.90%

39.90%

14.87%

354%

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

17.22%

17.22%

7.02%

105%

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

17.22%

17.22%

7.02%

105%

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

Two of our models gave a trading signal at the end of yesterday’s session: Danny Daredevil and Adventurous Anny. Danny switched from XIV ETNs to UVXY ETFs and Anny sold her XIV ETNs for cash at the opening of today’s session. 

 

 

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René’s Reflections @ Friday

Some reflections go without words.
Today’s reflections took place at Park Valkenberg in Breda.