25 May 2017: Turn off your brain

“6 ways to fight back against emotional impulses that hurt your investments.” For those of you who think they are good stock investors: take a look at this article at the MarketWatch website. The fact that you are a human, a living creature with a brain, makes you actually unfit for stock trading. You suffer from hedonistic kicks, the fear of giving up, repurchase effects, decision paralysis, etc. All this will force you into making the wrong decisions: you will buy stocks when you are not supposed to, you will sell at exactly the wrong moment. Can this be fixed? According to the article, you should basically turn off your brain. Switch off live stock quotes, avoid that you start feeling down (or euphoric), trick your brain by making things difficult, etc. At These Dutch Guys we wish you all the best! (NB: There is an alternative. Which does not require you to use your brain. Or follow the stock markets. Take a look at this.)

white-chapel-logo-small

US stocks kept climbing yesterday. The S&P 500 gained ground for a fifth consecutive session to close at a record. Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting were greeted with consent by the markets. The S&P 500 gained 0.25%. The Dow also rose (+0.36%), while the NASDAQ was very close to another record (+0.40%). Volatility took another substantial step back and closed just above 10 points at 10.02. We are approaching very low levels of volatility once again. UVXY ETFs lost more than 5%; XIV ETNs added another 2.5%. All of our models profited from this substantial gain.
Danny Daredevil‘s RSS rose above 425%. Adventurous Anny‘s return since 6 March reached 41%. Quite an achievement: Adventurous Anny was created only ten weeks ago and has been holding cash eight and a half weeks of those. It achieved her return of 41% in only twelve trading days. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry improved their RSS to more than 18%. They are approaching their all-time high of two weeks ago.
None of our models gave a trading signal at the end of yesterday’s session. We expect a trading signal for Danny and Anny soon.

Model Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil XIV 1 January 2016

425.44%

30.35%

12.09%

228%

Adventurous Anny XIV 6 March 2017

41.31%

41.32%

16.03%

384%

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

18.40%

18.40%

8.11%

116%

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

18.40%

18.40%

8.11%

116%

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

The Chapel Family – Episode 5

Danny, Anny, Suzy and Larry hit the town for a good old fashioned night out. In the dying hours of the night, they end up in some fairly nondescript karaoke bar. Danny allows himself a not so brief digression on the etymology of the word ‘karaoke’.
“Do you all know that ‘karaoke’ is, in fact, an English word borrowed from Japanese that itself consists partly of a Japanese word that has been borrowed from English? ‘Oke’ comes from ‘orchestra’? Funny, huh?”
Larry is not paying too much attention. He is half asleep. Suzy, on the other hand, is still very much awake.
Anny is holding a microphone in her hand. She has been in a good mood all evening.
The music starts playing and Anny is taking a deep breath.
The lyrics of the song appear on the screen behind her:

Oh
(Hold on) hold on
(Hold on) hold on
Ooh, aah, baby

Hold on
(Hold on) ooh ooh aah

The only way is up, baby
For you and me now
The only way is up, baby
For you and me now