24 May 2017: Fidget spinner

Fidget spinner. If you do not know the word or haven’t seen the object, you are likely a hermit. (But in that case it is very unlikely that you would read this blog post anyway.) The fidget spinner is a toy that is believed to relieve stress. It was invented in 1993, but it was only recently that it became a craze among children. Manias like these can teach us a lot about stock market trading. The same universal patterns apply: for some unknown reason, something is chosen by a small group, maybe even a single person, to be the world’s next object of desire. The world at large is still unaware of this, but once some more persons come into contact with the object, a process is started that can only be stopped by saturation. Next, a larger group of people, probably more accurately referred to as tame sheep, get wind of this new craze and there is only one thing they want: to be part of it. The final stage is reached when the majority of people are either in the possession of the object or have an opinion about it. Then it all stops, just like a fidget spinner. But not to worry: a new cycle has just started or is about to start. Sounds familiar, Danny?

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US markets closed higher Tuesday, for a fourth straight winning session. The S&P 500 added 0.18%, while the Dow gained 0.21%. The NASDAQ closed with the smallest advantage: +0.08%. Volatility dropped further: the VIX closed almost 2% lower. XIV ETNs profited, but only slightly: +0.13%. UVXY ETFs saw a decline of 0.34%.
All of our models closed marginally higher. Danny Daredevil‘s RSS rose to 412%. Adventurous Anny saw her RSS rise to 38%. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry closed firmly above 15%.
None of our models gave a trading signal at the end of yesterday’s session.

Model Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil XIV 1 January 2016

412.46%

27.13%

9.32%

223%

Adventurous Anny XIV 6 March 2017

37.82%

37.82%

13.17%

340%

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

15.48%

15.48%

5.44%

94%

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

15.48%

15.48%

5.44%

94%

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

Before smartphones became the norm in mobile communications, starting around 2007, we used dumbphones. They were simply called ‘mobile phones’ at the time, since no one back then could even think of their beloved communications device as being ‘dumb’. For the youngsters among us: dumbphones were a bit like scaled-down versions of pocket calculators with alphanumeric keys, except that you could make phone calls with them. They were used in a time when making phone calls was the rule, and sending each other text messages was the exception. Their tiny monochrome displays were just big enough to show the name and/or phone number of your contact. Or to show a text message, back then limited to just a handful of characters, a bit like a private tweet avant la lettre. But apart from making phone calls and sending basic text messages, nothing was possible with a dumbphone. Like browsing the net, using apps, making mobile payments, taking pictures and sharing them online: all that came after the introduction of the smartphone. Yet, all their limitations aside, there is one thing in which dumbphones still excel, and leave smartphones far behind up to this day: battery life. To modern day smartphone users, using a phone for days in a row, without having to recharge it (not to mention a stand-by time of almost a week) is simply unimagineable. Their phones rarely see the end of the day without the need for a recharge.  A smartphone is useful for many things, like writing a blogpost in a hidden forest retreat, but if it only had the battery life of a dumbphone, it wouldn’t be a race against the cl