17 May 2017: Overplaying his hand

It is not the best of jokes: is Donald Trump overplaying his hand? Looking at the first part of his presidency, there is so much truth to this question, however. Donald Trump is behaving as if he is convinced that he has only trump cards up his sleeve. Where people had hoped for the refreshing power of an outsider in the White House, Trump’s presidency is turning into a nightmare. By asking former FBI director James Comey to end the investigation into former national security adviser Michael Flynn, Donald Trump crossed another border. We seriously have to take into account that there is a chance that this presidency will end only shortly after it started. On stock markets, this will have a tremendous impact. All the air that has been pumped into stock prices the last six months will escape with brute force. The period of extremely low volatility will only be a vague memory…

white-chapel-logo-smallThe NASDAQ closed at another record high yesterday, as the Dow and S&P 500 finished fractionally lower amid political uncertainty in the U.S. The S&P 500 index declined 0.07%. The Dow slipped just 0.01%. The NASDAQ rose 0.3%, closing at 6,169.87 points. (Remember that value: it might take some time before we will reach that level again.) Volatility was on the rise and closed more than 2% higher. UVXY ETFs did not profit (yet) and lost almost 2%. XIV ETNs closed 1% higher to reach another record high at 82.40 dollar.
Danny Daredevil was on the wrong side of the score once more, closing at an RSS of 237%. Adventurous Anny is still at an RSS of 22%. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry continued their climb. Their RSS closed at 24%.
None of our models gave a trading signal at the end of yesterday’s session.

Model Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil UVXY 1 January 2016

237.16%

-16.36%

-28.08%

142%

Adventurous Anny Cash 6 March 2017

21.78%

21.78%

0.0%

172%

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

23.58%

23.58%

12.83%

192%

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

23.58%

23.58%

12.83%

192%

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

In the Netherlands, today is forecast to be a summer’s day. In the south, the temperatures will rise to 29 °C (84 °F) on a clear, mostly dry, sunny day. Those who can, should enjoy today’s weather as much as possible, as showers will put an end to the summertime warmth tomorrow. And according to the long range forecast, not much will change up until the end of this month.