12 May 2017: Janus

Donald Trump showed his Janus face on China yesterday. After months of bashing China for its trade practices, his Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross unveiled a 10-point plan that should normalize relations between the two mega-powers. Part of the plan is improving the access of US natural-gas exporters, beef producers and electronic-payments providers to the world’s second-largest economy. And according to Wilbur Ross, there is more to come.
It is dawning on President Trump that 1.4 billion Chinese consumers are at least as interesting as an opportunity for US companies than that 3.2 million Chinese companies are a threat to the US economy. And once again it shows: Donald Trump is the guy who will bark, but won’t bite.

white-chapel-logo-smallUS stock markets closed lower on Thursday, because of a number of weaker-than-expected earnings reports. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ both closed 0.22% lower. The Dow suffered only half that loss: -0.11%. Volatility was on the rise and the VIX distanced itself somewhat more from the magical border of 10 points, closing at 10.60 (+3.82%). UVXY ETFs were in the green for most of the day, but closed down (-0.56%) nevertheless. XIV ETNs followed the opposite pattern and closed the day with a small gain (+0.28%).
Danny Daredevil‘s RSS is stuck in a bandwidth just above 260%. Adventurous Anny is stuck at an RSS of 22% as long there is no trading signal. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry saw their RSS make an attempt to take the barrier of 20%, but it failed: it closed at 19.71%.
None of our models gave a trading signal at the end of yesterday’s session.

Model Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil UVXY 1 January 2016

260.64%

-10.54%

-23.07%

157%

Adventurous Anny Cash 6 March 2017

21.78%

21.78%

0.0%

193%

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

19.71%

19.71%

9.30%

166%

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

19.71%

19.71%

9.30%

166%

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

RS_v05-smallRené’s Reflections @ Friday: Dodging the inevitable

Every year by the end of April / early May, I have symptoms of hay fever, in varying degrees of severeness. One year, the symptoms are worse than the other. In a good year (that is: when the Spring is cold and wet, and the air is free from pollen) I can breathe through my nose, my eyes aren’t red and swollen, and I don’t have to sneeze continuously multiple times a day.
This year, I was in Japan during the period in which the hay fever typically kicks in. Up until the date of my return flight to the Netherlands, on May 10th, I was completely free of hay fever symptoms. It felt like a revelation. Undoubtedly there are many pollen in the air in Japan as well, but they are different, and I apparently have no allergic reaction to these at all.
While on my way back to the Netherlands, this made me think: “So that could be the solution: just to stay away from my home country during the hay fever period, and return when the coast (the air) is clear.”
Today, Friday May 12th, is my second full day back in the Netherlands. Much to my surprise, and dismay, the hay fever kicked in ample hours after I set foot on my home soil again. And it did so with a vengeance like nothing I’d ever experienced before. This year’s hay fever to me feels like the sum of all the hay fevers of previous years. Really, it’s so bad, that if I had known this would come before I flew back, I would have considered staying in Japan for as long as necessary to escape from it.
But then again, it would be a losing game anyway. Trying to dodge the inevitable is futile. If there is anything that seeks you, it will always find you, sooner or later. The longer you keep it away, the harder it will come to get you. There is no dodging the inevitable.