As expected, Emmanuel Macron won the French Presidential elections yesterday. The young liberal will bring the outdated country that France has become during the last decades back to the 21st century. His campaign promises included a more efficient government, reduced government spending, lowering the tax rates and reforming the labor market to make it more flexible. His election can also be considered to be substantial support to the European project. The surprise victory of Angela Merkel’s CDU in the German federal state elections of Schleswig-Holstein (and the disappointing results for Alternative für Deutschland, a party which is anti-immigration and anti-Europe) hints at the possibility of a revival in the near term of the Franco-German axis that has been the foundation of the European Union. Europe’s future looks all of a sudden so much different.
A positive jobs report made US stock indices go up last Friday. Employers in the United States added 211,000 jobs in April, according to the US Labor Department. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both added 0.4%, while the Dow gained 0.3%. Volatility was mainly unchanged in the morning hours, but took off in the second part of the trading session. The VIX touched the extremely low level of 9.99 points in the morning, but closed at 10.57 (+1.05%). UVXY ETFs followed the pattern and closed 1.00% higher. XIV ETNs lost 0.61%.
Danny Daredevil closed the week on a positive note. His RSS stabilized around 280% this week. Adventurous Anny is holding cash since the end of March. Her RSS remained at 22%. Solid Suzy‘s and Lazy Larry‘s RSS kept climbing steadily this week and reached 16%.
None of our models gave a trading signal at the end of Friday’s session. If markets keep meandering around the levels at which they are stuck since 25 April or go slightly up, it might take at least another week before a trading signal is reached.
RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return
Meanwhile in Japan
Tsuwano is one of the many picturesque towns Japan has to offer. This old castle town is located at the Western edge of Shimane Prefecture and is surrounded by mountains, the one in the east being Mount Aono. It is also known as “Little Kyoto”. There is a lot worth seeing here: historical buildings, shrines and temples, samurai mansions and huge carps swimming through the waterway along the main street.
The obligatory tourist pictures are a Google search away. Below are just three random shots of daily life in Tsuwano.