4 May 2017: Back to you, Donald

As expected, the Fed did not change interest rates. Furthermore, the central bank of the United States found the state of the US economy not surprising or worrisome and signaled that the Fed is still on track to raise interest rates at a gradual pace. Two additional interest-rate increases is what the Fed’s plans are for 2017. Investors can go to sleep with a good feeling. And turn their attention to Donald Trump’s plans. Or the lack of such plans. Back to you, Donald!

white-chapel-logo-smallUS stocks closed mostly lower Wednesday. The main indices were in the red for most of the day, but climbed in the last hours of trading. The Dow was able to squeeze out a tiny gain: +0.04%. The S&P 500 was not able to lift itself out of negative territory and closed 0.13% lower. The NASDAQ was unable to break another record and lost 0.37%. Volatility had its ups and downs throughout the trading session, but closed with a small change: the VIX added 0.09 points (+0.85%). This ‘fear gauge’ is still well below 11 points: much lower than its historical average of 19 points. UVXY ETFs rebounded and closed 4% higher. XIV ETNs had to take a step back and closed 2% lower.
Danny Daredevil‘s RSS is almost back at 300% and his YTD is approaching positive territory for 2017. Adventurous Anny was unchanged: her RSS remained at 22%. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry are in possession of XIV ETNs: their RSS dropped to 14%.
None of our models gave a trading signal at the end of yesterday’s session.

Model Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil UVXY 1 January 2016

296.88%

-1.55%

-15.34%

180%

Adventurous Anny Cash 6 March 2017

21.78%

21.78%

0.0%

238%

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

14.26%

14.26%

4.33%

128%

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

14.26%

14.26%

4.33%

128%

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

Meanwhile in Japan

René’s five-day visit to Tokyo ended yesterday. This was the second time René visited Tokyo. The first time was in september 2008. During his three-week Japan trip that month, Tim accompanied him. When René checked out the hotel yesterday morning, he recalled the moment he checked out the hotel in Tokyo during his trip with Tim. The morning newspaper placed outside of the hotel room door, blazoned in screaming headlines that US bank Lehman Brothers had collapsed. It was a demarcation point in the unfolding of the subprime crisis.

Shinjuku, Tokyo

Tokyo Station

In the Shinkansen from Tokyo to Hiroshima. While René enjoyed his coffee from the vending machine and a bento, ‘the other Steve’ was watching him. The Japanese text at the bottom of his picture says “Work and laugh”.