12 April 2017: Does this negative investor sentiment have legs?

Stock prices have suffered and volatility has flourished from geopolitical matters in the last few days. Are these issues merely a (short-lived) distraction from the fact that markets are fundamentally in a good shape or is there more to this change in investor sentiment? As you might be well aware of by now, investor sentiment is for a substantial part made up of irrational matters. Small factors can grow into big waves. The feeling that will be conveyed by company results during the upcoming earnings season will for the main part determine whether or not this negative investor sentiment has legs.

white-chapel-logo-small

U.S. stocks ended down on Tuesday, but well off the day’s lows, as worries about geopolitical risks influenced investor sentiment. The Dow fell 0.03 percent, the S&P 500 lost 0.14 percent, and the NASDAQ dropped 0.24 percent. Volatility was on the rise for another day with the VIX closing above 15 points (+7.26%). UVXY ETFs added another 9%. XIV ETNs lost almost 5%.
Danny Daredevil kept surging yesterday and his RSS is approaching 500%. His AAR, over a period of more than 15 months, now stands above 300%. Adventurous Anny did not change yesterday. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry had to take another blow and their RSS closed for the first time below zero since their installment.
None of our models gave a trading signal at the end of yesterday’s session.

Model Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil UVXY 1 January 2016

492.86%

47.07%

26.47%

302%

Adventurous Anny Cash 6 March 2017

21.78%

21.78%

0.00%

599%

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

-3.94%

-3.94%

-12.30%

-33%

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

-3.94%

-3.94%

-12.30%

-33%

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

RS_v05-small Every week on Wednesdays, there is a book market in the city center of Breda. According to one of the booksellers, the best-selling books are those that fall into one of the categories of royalty, show business, travel, cooking and lifestyle. Business management books, especially those on public relations, communications and media strategy, are gathering dust. Judging on the remarkably large number of PR disasters of late – both in politics and in business – those responsible could have avoided the pitfalls they fell into, had they chosen to read at least one of the books of the latter category.