23 March 2017: The first big test

Today, the House of Representatives will vote on the American Health Care Act, Trump’s proposed replacement to Obamacare. If the House votes against this proposal, this could have far-reaching consequences for Donald Trump’s presidency, but also for stock markets. Not only is ‘Trumpcare’ considered an important litmus test for Trump’s plans in general and how these will be digested by Congress, but the President also needs the revenues from the savings that are implied by his proposal to pay for other proposals. Investors should not be surprised if stock prices take another beating after the voting behavior of the House of Representatives becomes clear later today.

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Yesterday, US markets rebounded to some extent from Tuesday’s losses. The Dow ended slightly in the red, however. Volatility rose some more and the VIX is approaching 13 points. UVXY ETFs extended their gains (+0.97%). XIV ETNs posted a small loss and are now just above 70 points.
Danny Daredevil’s RSS rose to 260%. His AAR is at 185%. Adventurous Anny, who is holding cash, is unchanged at 8%. Solid Suzy‘s and Lazy Larry‘s returns are slightly lower at 5.38%.
None of our models gave a trading signal at the end of yesterday’s session.

Model Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil UVXY 1 January 2016

260.17%

-10.65%

-10.65%

185%

Adventurous Anny Cash 6 March 2017

8.17%

8.17%

8.17%

Later

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

5.38%

5.38%

5.38%

Later

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

5.38%

5.38%

5.38%

Later

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

RS_v05-smallThe spring season is a delight for all your senses. The scent of the first warm spring mornings is a joy for the nose (unless you are a hayfever sufferer, that is…) The warmth of the sun is a treat to the skin. The fresh green colors of the new leaves and plants, as well as the bright colors of the blossoms, are a real feast for your eyes. And the sounds of the birds are a blessing for your ears. And just to get you in the mood, in case spring hasn’t arrived at your place yet, here’s a little audio recording of spring in the Netherlands. Recorded at the Liesbos forest, located west of Breda.