21 March 2017: Which model should I follow?

Two weeks ago, These Dutch Guys introduced three new models. For some of our followers, this has resulted in choice stress. They ask us: which model should I follow? It all depends on the combination of potential return and risk that you are willing to expose yourself to.
To many investors, the rollercoaster rides of Danny Daredevil will be too much to handle. Danny’s potential returns will feel good to them, but the accompanying risk levels will cause too many sleepless nights.
Adventurous Anny and Solid Suzy are more balanced models. Their potential for substantial returns can be judged as good, while their risk profile is very different from Danny’s. Anny is more sensitive to short and mid-term fluctuations in sentiment. Suzy only moves when substantial movements can be observed in the markets.
And what about Lazy Larry? Well, Larry is Larry. Larry will follow the overall wave-like movements of the markets: Larry’s value will rise steadily during bull markets. However, bear markets will have a substantial impact on the value of his portfolio.
So, which model should you follow? If you want a nice balance between number of trades, potential return and risk, Adventurous Anny is a good choice. Solid Suzy can be the right pick if you want to reduce the number of trades and still go for a nice balance between return and risk. Danny Daredevil is suited for those people who can tolerate the combination of 300% gains and 65% losses. Lazy Larry is probably a very good choice right after the next market crash. In anticipation of that moment, Anny and Suzy are probably better choices.

white-chapel-logo-small

No real big movements in the markets yesterday. The Dow and the NASDAQ were basically unchanged and the S&P 500 meandered around unchanged before closing 0.20% down. The VIX was idle for most of the day and closed up 0.53%. UVXY ETFs were slightly higher (+0.18%) and XIV ETNs recorded a small loss (-0.24%).
As a result, our models barely moved. Danny Daredevil added a small gain and its (rounded) return since the start remained at 232%. No changes for Adventurous Anny as she is holding cash. Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry recorded a small loss and their return since the start is now just above 10%.
White Chapel did not give a trading signal for any of our four models.

Model Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil UVXY 1 January 2016

232.14%

-17.61%

-17.61%

168%

Adventurous Anny Cash 6 March 2017

8.17%

8.17%

8.17%

Later

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

10.08%

10.08%

10.08%

Later

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

10.08%

10.08%

10.08%

Later

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

The Chapel Family – Episode 2

Suzy and Larry sit next to each other on the couch. Danny stares out the window expectantly with his back turned toward them. Anny is gone.
“What is he staring at?” Larry asks Suzy.
“I don’t know.” Suzy replies. “Must be one of his recalcitrant moods.”
“And where’s Anny gone?”
“Don’t know either. She left a couple of days ago. Don’t worry. She’ll be back.”