15 March 2017: Staring into the crystal ball

Only if the Fed refrains from a rate hike today, the markets would be surprised. The expected rate hike has been incorporated in current stock prices. But investors will start looking for clues about the future. How many more rate hikes can we expect? And how steep will the future hikes be? Ever since investing became speculation, staring into a crystal ball has become a more differentiating skill among stock market traders than analyzing operating results.

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Markets were getting somewhat more nervous yesterday, ahead of the outcomes of the Fed meeting that will be made publicly later today. US indices lost 0.3% on average and the VIX rose more than 8%. XIV ETNs lost 2% in the process. All our models recorded losses.
Danny Daredevil‘s return since the start dropped to 213%, with the result for this year standing at -22%. Adventurous Anny made a substantial loss on the gains she made in the previous days, but is still in the green: +1.3%.
Solid Suzy‘s and Lazy Larry‘s results are up 2.8% since their start at the beginning of last week.

Model Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil XIV 1 January 2016

+213.05%

-22.34%

-22.34%

+158%

Adventurous Anny XIV 6 March 2017

1.27%

1.27%

1.27%

Later

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

2.82%

2.82%

2.82%

Later

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

2.82%

2.82%

2.82%

Later

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

RS_v05-smallUp until a week ago, one of the many items on René’s “list of places to visit” was the Azure Window in San Lawrenz, Malta. This world-renowned natural phenomenon, locally known as Tieqa tad-Dwejra, is a 92 feet tall limestone arch. It has become well known as a notorious cliff-jumping spot, as well as a filming location for the movies Clash of the Titans (1981), The Count of Monte Cristo (2002), and the TV series Game of Thrones, just to mention a few.
Last week on Wednesday, René removed the Azure Window from his list. Unfortunately, this was not because he had visited the place…

Photo by Giuseppe Milo. Some rights reserved