14 March 2017: A crash, but when?

Because of the strong rise of stock prices the last four months, investors and analysts start talking about a stock market crash more frequently. Chart specialist Sandy Jadeja thinks that a substantial correction is imminent. It is only natural that some sort of correction will follow the strong rise of market indices of the previous period. The key question is: when will this correction take place? If the current rally would resemble the rally at the end of the previous century, indices might add as much as another 40% before collapsing. If the rally that preceded the subprime crash of 2008 serves as an example for 2017, a substantial correction could take place any day and we cannot be sure what will be the trigger. Predicting a stock market crash or correction is not the issue, the timing of it is.

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U.S. stocks were little changed on Monday. Investors preferred not to move ahead of a widely expected interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve later this week. Volatility eased somewhat more and the VIX is getting closer to 11 points. XIV ETNs added more than 2%.
All our models profited from this rise of XIV ETNs. Danny Daredevil saw its return since the start go up to 220%. Adventurous Anny‘s RSS rose to more than 3% and that of Solid Suzy and Lazy Larry is approaching 5%.
No trading signal was given by any of our models.

Model Holds Start date

RSS

YTD

QTD

AAR

Danny Daredevil XIV 1 January 2016

+219.58%

-20.72%

-20.72%

+164%

Adventurous Anny XIV 6 March 2017

3.38%

3.38%

3.38%

Later

Solid Suzy XIV 6 March 2017

4.96%

4.96%

4.96%

Later

Lazy Larry
XIV 6 March 2017

4.96%

4.96%

4.96%

Later

RSS = Return Since Start | YTD = Year-To-Date | QTD = Quarter-To-Date | AAR = Average Annual Return

 

RS_v05-smallSpring seems to have finally made it to the Netherlands! René has been waiting for this moment for months already. Perfect weather conditions to go out and get a breath of fresh air. He inflated the tires of his mountain bike, filled his backpack with a bottle of mineral water and some sandwiches, and went for a long bike ride along the Belgian border. While riding his bicycle, he realized once more that during scarce moments like this, every hour spent indoors is a lost hour.