8 February 2017: The bull is back

White Chapel consists of several modules. According to the module Bear & Bull, we are back into bull territory since yesterday. That is for the first time since 7 July 2014. The data tell us that we are entering phase 2 (or maybe phase 3, if we consider the period between the China Crisis of August 2015 and the New Year’s Eve Hangover of January 2016 as phase 2) of a bull market that started in September 2009. From a historical viewpoint, stock prices are at a relatively high level. So, it is not very likely that this bull market will last for a couple of years. But it is not improbable that this (last) phase of the bull market will last for another six months or so. It depends on how much confidence investors have in Donald Trump’s economic plans. If they lose their faith, this bull market might be over much sooner than you would expect. We might even be entering a bear market shortly.

white-chapel-logo-smallAll US indices made small gains yesterday. And volatility slightly eased. Our XIV ETNs made a small loss nevertheless: -0.7%. Return since the start stands now at 166%. Return for this year is at -34%.
Now that White Chapel detected a bull phase, it is very likely that we will stick to our XIV ETNs for some time (if this bull phase has some stamina of course…).

Accumulated capital at close of previous trading day

Return since start

Return this year

Return this quarter

$26,560

+165.60%

-34.11%

-34.1%

Our initial capital was $10,000 at 1 January 2016. Our average Annual Return is 142%.

ta_v05-small-invThe fact that we have entered a bull market, reminded Tim of an encounter he had with a bull almost 25 years ago.
He took the train from his hometown to go to Zwolle, a former Hanseatic city in the eastern part of the Netherlands. When he arrived in Zwolle, he somehow missed a turn to his friend’s house and ended up at the west bank of the river IJssel, one of the major rivers in the Netherlands. During his walk to the river, the night had fallen. It was a moonless night.
In the distance, Tim could see the lights of the residential area where his friend lived. He decided to take a shortcut and entered a meadow. This meadow was more than 750 meters long and parts of the meadow were separated by small ditches.
Suddenly, Tim felt the presence of something. Because it was pitch-dark, he could only see some vague contours of what he thought were animals which were lying on the ground. Tim was not sure what animals these were, but just to be sure he started to run. He was under the impression that some of the animals had gotten up and were running after him. He was glad when he reached another ditch and jumped over it with some relief. The trampling of hoofs on the ground behind him stopped.
The next day, when Tim passed the meadow, he noticed that there were not only some forty dairy cows to be found in the grassland,  but also one bull…