18 January 2017: An irregular pattern

Before the election of Donald Trump, there was this nice pattern: if indices dropped, the VIX would rise and UVXY ETFs would follow suit. Since it became clear that the Donald will be the next US President, everything seems different. UVXY ETFs seek to match two times the daily performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index. So, traders in commodities on which the UVXY is based (short-term futures on the VIX) do share one perspective on (the volatility of) the S&P with traders in stocks that are part of the S&P. It is, however, the time factor on which they differ. In the end, it must all line up, of course. But for the moment, short-term futures traders appear to be somewhat less pessimistic than other investors. Let’s hope that the regular pattern will return after the inauguration of Donald Trump.

All major US indices closed lower (S&P 500 and Dow -0.3% and NASDAQ -0.6%) and the VIX added more than 5 %. Our UVXY ETFs did not profit, however, and lost 0.75%. It looks like short-term futures traders were somewhat more optimistic than the rest of the market at the end of yesterday’s trading session. Return since the start is now at 247% and return for the year slightly dropped to -14%.
White Chapel did not give a trading signal at the end of yesterday’s session.

Accumulated capital at close of previous trading day

Return since start

Return this year

Return this quarter

$34,653

+246.53%

-14.04%

-14.0%

Our initial capital was $10,000 at 1 January 2016. Our average Annual Return is 227%.

RS_v05-smallIn The Netherlands, all children know how to skate. Well, maybe not all of them, but at least the vast majority. René was one of the exceptions to the rule. As a child, he had injured himself on his first attempt. He fell, and one of his skates left a gaping wound, which didn’t look nor feel good. From that moment on, nobody could move him to make a second attempt. He was convinced of the fact that skating was not his ball game at all. So, he spent his childhood skillfully hiding the fact that he couldn’t skate. In The Netherlands, not being able to skate, is on par with not being able to ride a bicycle or to tie your shoelaces.
At the age of 17, on a beautiful winter day in the 1980s, this all changed. His girlfriend at the time taught him patiently, carefully and with great compassion, in less than an hour, how to skate. Which was quite an achievement, since the ice hockey skates he had borrowed from a friend, were definitely not the easiest skates for a newbie.
While René made a walk through the forest this morning, he passed the exact same spot. He looked at the frozen lake. And for a moment, he felt like he was 17 again. It’s remarkable, how places and spaces can act as containers for memories.