3 January 2017: A new year, an update of our model

These Dutch Guys are constantly on the look-out for improvements of their models. It had been bothering Tim for months, that White Chapel appeared to be underperforming in this period of extremely low interest rates. White Chapel‘s pattern of momentum changes felt a bit lazy in 2015 and 2016. Tim shared his observation with René during a meeting These Dutch Guys had in coffee bar Kamu in René’s hometown. They had a fruitful discussion about the matter. And on the 25 kilometer bicycle ride to his home, Tim came up with an idea how to make the level of interest rates part of their current model. The coding of this idea was not very complicated and the backtesting of the improved model gave almost instant gratification: the average annual return generated by the model not only improved, but the amount of improvement went beyond all previous improvements to the model.
We are not going to change the name of our model to White Kamu, but the rise in average annual return would have justified it, nevertheless. The new iteration of the model will be called White Chapel 2.0. It is in use from 1 January 2017.
The introduction of the new model will be accompanied by new pages on our website. White Chapel 2.0 has its own page which gives a short explanation of the nature of the model and its results in backtesting and (future) live trading. All previous models also have their own pages. These Dutch Guys try to be as transparent as possible about the models they use and the innovations they introduce.

white-chapel-logo-smallLast Friday, at the end of the final trading session of 2016, all major US indices made moderate losses: the Dow lost 0.26%, the S&P 500 0.46% and the NASDAQ 0.90%. Volatility rose substantially: the VIX gained 5% and our UVXY ETFs added 4.4%. The final return of our model White Chapel for 2016 is 303%. Q4’s final return is 31.6%.
White Chapel did not give a trading signal at the end of Friday’s session, but moved much closer to a signal. We are starting the year with UVXY ETFs in our possession, however.

Accumulated capital at close of previous trading day

Return since start

Final return for 2016

Final return Q4 of 2016

$40,311

+303.11%

+303.11%

+31.6%

Our initial capital was $10,000 at 1 January 2016. Our average Annual Return is 303%.

ta_v05-small-invTim lives in one of the busiest major approach roads to the city center of his hometown. During the morning rush hours at an ordinary day, more than 2,000 cars an hour pass his window. At New Year’s Day, Tim went out for a walk in the early morning hours. He took the picture below at 16 minutes before nine o’clock AM, while standing in the middle of the road. There was no car to be seen on either side of the three kilometer road.