16 December 2016: How to make a bull lie down?

bull-lyingThis Trump rally continued yesterday where it had stopped three days before. What does it take for this bull to lie down? No Janet Yellen is able to stop it. Even a Janet Yellen with a surprise announcement (one more rate hike in 2017 than expected) left the bull standing on its four feet. This is bullish sentiment at its best. Based on something irrational, good hopes and positive vibes. In those cases, you cannot be sure when it will stop. But one thing is certain: the longer a bull stands on its feet, the more tired it gets and the quicker it will be on the ground. Will it happen before Christmas? The start of the new year would be a good moment. When have we seen that before…?

white-chapel-logo-smallMarkets shook off the negative sentiment that was dominant after Wednesday’s decision by the Fed and continued the rally that has been happening since Donald Trump’s election. Major US indices made gains of 0.35% on average. As a result, volatility eased: the VIX lost 3% and our UVXY ETFs 3.1%. Return for the year dropped to 319%.
White Chapel is less positive about more volatility coming up, but is not close to a signal. We stick with our UVXY ETFs. 

Accumulated capital at close of previous trading day

Return since start

Return this year

Return this quarter

$41,878

+318.78%

+318.78%

+36.7%

Our initial capital was $10,000 at 1 January 2016. Our average Annual Return is 353%.

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René’s Reflections @ Friday: The Life of Our Times

When I was ten years old, the world was a much different place than it is today. If I were to describe it in a few words, I’d say that it was a small, simple, slow, sociable, stable, spontaneous, seemingly safe world back then. Silly and serious at the same time. If you lived through the seventies and/or the eighties, you can probably relate to this – maybe even if you didn’t. No, you won’t hear me say that everything was better in the old days. But things were just so much different then, it makes me wonder what it would be like for our modern day kids, to grow up in today’s world. A study of young people in England by the Department for Education (DfE) of the UK, doesn’t paint a joyful picture. According to this study, there were challenges in terms of the mental wellbeing of young people, and overall levels of psychological distress increased between 2005 and 2014. Is this something to worry about?
I have a godchild who will turn ten in March. Seeing him grow up in this day and age instills in me a sense of wonder and awe. He’s a typical kid of today. He is curious, playful, eager to learn, quick as mercury, and nothing seems to indicate that this world we live in, is too fast or demanding for him.
If he could live in the world I lived in when I was his age, be it for just one day, I know for sure what his reaction would be: “Booooooring!” And he would be only too happy when he could return to his own times. And teleporting the ten year old boy I was to the world of today, wouldn’t be that much of a success either. This world of overstimulation would blow my fuse before the end of the day.
I believe that every one of us is wired and equipped to live and survive in the time in which we were born. There’s no time like our own time. Something to keep in mind, when we invent the time machine one day.

Literature:
A Longitudinal study of young people in England: Research into the health and wellbeing of 14-year-olds living in England.
The Department for Education (DfE) of UK