7 November 2016: Fear itself

fdr“The only thing we have to fear is fear itself”. So far, there appears to be a close parallel between the Brexit referendum in the UK and the US Presidential elections. The run-up to the Brexit referendum and especially the outcome of the vote brought a lot of insecurity among investors. But shortly after the UK referendum, many investors realised that their fear was heavily exaggerated and stock prices began to rise. Will the remainder of the run-up to the US Presidential elections and the aftermath also be a copy of what happened in the UK? If that is the case, a surprise outcome of the Presidential elections is imminent. And if that is the case, is that something to be fearful about? The Obama Presidency has shown that a President can have a very hard time to really change things. Donald Trump will likely meet the same fate. So, the fear of investors is mainly the fear for fear itself disguised as the unknown, the unexpected.

white-chapel-logo-smallLast Friday, indices were in the green for most of the trading day, but turned red in the final trading hours. Although the VIX gained almost 2%, our XIV ETNs hardly moved and made a very modest loss. Return for the year now stands at 273% and return for the quarter is still above 20%. 
White Chapel
did not give a trading signal at the end of Friday’s session and is expecting volatility to ease. So, we stick to our XIV ETNs.

Accumulated capital at close of previous trading day

Return since start

Return this year

Return this quarter

$37,335

+273.35%

+273.35%

+21.9%

Our initial capital was $10,000 at 1 January 2016. Our average Annual Return is 384%.

ta_v05-small-invSummer’s almost gone. It is hard to say goodbye for the summer in the Netherlands. Every time that you get the feeling that not only autumn, but even winter is about to storm in, you are welcomed by a warm glow during a walk around a lake. And then, our thoughts go back to the many, many beautiful summer days of 2016.
But this week will be different. In the night of Monday upon Tuesday, we will experience the first frost of the year. The days after that, temperatures will have difficulty to rise substantially above zero. Heavy rainfall will make it even more uncomfortable to be outside.
Until then, just like the weather, we will remain in a state of denial: summer’s not almost gone.

summersalmostgone